Full order book, empty account. That is the gap between profitable and solvent, and a piece in Dynamic Business lays out why it widened this year. The headline number: more than 12,800 companies entered external administration in 2025-26, among the highest on record, with construction leading.
The point worth sitting with is that none of this is one big shock. It is three timing changes, each quietly shortening the runway.
What actually changed
Payday super. From 1 July 2026, employers pay super at the same time as wages rather than quarterly. The quarterly lag was an unofficial float for a lot of businesses. It is gone.
Wages up again. Modern award rates rose 4.75% and the national minimum wage lifted to $26.44 an hour from 1 July, on top of materials costs that have not eased.
No more card payments to the ATO. From 30 November 2026, the Tax Office stops accepting credit card payments, a flow-on from the surcharge ban. For owners who used the card to smooth BAS timing, that lever closes.
What it means for a borrower
Each change pulls cash forward. Super that sat for a quarter now moves weekly. Wage bills are heavier. The card buffer at BAS time disappears. If your business was leaning on any of those as working capital without quite naming it, the gap now lands on your own balance sheet.
The article's own framing is that cash flow is a discipline, not a monthly surprise. The borrower's-eye version: the cost of carrying a mismatch between when customers pay and when suppliers and the ATO want paying is now more visible, and more expensive, than it was. Whether you close that gap by tightening debtor days, renegotiating supplier terms, or external finance is a decision about your own numbers, not ours to make.
The quietest line in the piece is also the sharpest: an ATO payment plan is cheaper than card interest ever was. Plan before the change lands, not after.
General information only.