Fixed rates are moving before the Reserve Bank does. As Australian Broker reported, Macquarie lifted fixed home loan rates twice in September, and Canstar counts 18 lenders raising at least one fixed term over the month. The four major banks now expect a 0.25 percentage point cash rate lift to 4.60% at the RBA's 29 September 2026 meeting, with ANZ building a further November rise into its forecast.
The repricing is broad. Macquarie's 24 September moves of up to 0.20 points followed 8 September rises of up to 0.30. Aussie and ubank also lifted. CBA's round landed 22 September, after similar moves from NAB, ANZ and Westpac, with increases reaching up to 0.48 points, per Canstar.
What it changes for borrowers
Fixed pricing is now being set on the expectation of a hike, not the fact of one. The pattern worth noting: lenders are moving fixed rates ahead of the cash rate decision, which means the fixed number you see today already carries the market's bet on what happens on 29 September.
For the household maths, Canstar modelling on a $600,000 owner-occupier loan puts the September move alone at about $91 more a month, and five combined 2026 rises at $456. On a $1 million loan with 25 years left, the tally runs to $759 a month across those five rises.
Where fixed pricing sits
Macquarie's one-year rate is now 6.49%, matching the cheapest fixed offers from NAB and ANZ. Its two- and three-year lowest rates rose to 6.59%, and four- and five-year to 6.64%. Canstar's Sally Tindall notes owner-occupiers could still find rates below 6%, but those "would likely become scarce" if the RBA moves.
For business borrowers, the read-across is simple: the cost of certainty is being repriced upward, and it is happening before the decision, not after it. Whether fixing suits your position depends on your cash flow and horizon, not on where the herd is looking.
Advertised rates, not offers. General information only.